The world is at a critical point in the fight against climate change, and COP26 was considered the most significant climate talks since the 2015 Paris Agreement. During the conference, there were notable successes and some setbacks — both have implications for businesses, globally.
KPMG professionals reflect on the progress made during the climate change conference and provide insights on how to help accelerate toward net zero, together.
COP26 made progress toward delivering on the Paris Agreement goals of limiting global warming to ‘well below’ 2 degrees Celsius (C) on pre-industrial levels, but the world is definitely not on track to limit the increase to 1.5C on the basis of plans submitted to date.
In a scenario where all the climate pledges announced to date were met in full and on time, then the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global warming could be kept to 1.8C. However, the lack of firm plans for 2030 means the actual increase could be 1 2.4C.
These commitments must be delivered upon if these temperature goals are to be achieved. This still represents progress since Paris, where the world was heading for 3C 4C of warming, and COP26 should be seen as part of that ongoing process that started nearly 30 years ago and now plans to continue indefinitely to tackle climate change.
Over that period, there has been a marked shift from ‘top down’ reliance on governments taking the lead to ‘bottom up’ action by businesses, investors, NGOs and consumers.
COP26 has energized a raft of initiatives including:
– The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ).
– The Glasgow Breakthroughs on technology innovation.
– Powering Past Coal and shifting to clean power.
– Nearly 100 countries committing to cutting methane emissions.
– A commitment to end and reverse deforestation by 2030.
– H2Zero – A pledge to accelerate use of decarbonized hydrogen.
– A new requirement for net-zero transition plans for listed companies in the UK. – Establishing a new International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB), globally.
Good progress was made on Article 6 — the rulebook for carbon accounting.
But there were also a number of setbacks:
– The US$100 billion per year climate finance target — due by 2020 — was delayed to 2023.
– Many of the new net-zero targets announced have limited detail on near-term plans to help reduce emissions — which is essential if we are to have a chance at limiting global warming to 1.5C.
– Questions remain regarding the follow through and implementation, with the final call to action requesting all parties to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ahead of the next COP in November 2022.
It’s becoming increasingly clear that the institutional investment world is starting to exercise real influence through investment policy and are starting to demand increased climate focus from investee companies. Importantly, these investors are focused on private companies as much as public companies.
The shift to net zero is the next great industrial revolution and businesses that seize the opportunity are expected to thrive — those that don’t, may not.
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Reflections on COP26 | Notable successes | COP26 shortcomings | Implications for businesses | Stakeholder accountability | Short-term targets and action | In summary
In the run up to Glasgow, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson called for COP26 to be a “turning point for humanity” that could put the world on track to meet the goals set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement of limiting global warming to “well below” 2C on pre-industrial levels — with an aspiration of keeping it to 1.5C.
By contrast, Greta Thunberg predicted it would just be more “blah, blah, blah” with politicians not following through on their commitments and lacking real action.
So, which was it? KPMG’s view is it was somewhere in between, with progress made in a number of areas, but also some significant disappointments. Glasgow held on to the aspirations of the
Paris Agreement of limiting global warming to 1.5C, but, as things stand, the world is definitely not on track to hit this target.
COP26 has delivered in creating increased momentum on the climate agenda and more parts of society are being mobilized to act. There are now a growing number of ‘bottom up’ initiatives, like GFANZ, that are developing a momentum of their own — with the potential to make real change.
Glasgow should be seen as part of the ongoing process of global climate change negotiations that began at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. The final ‘decision’ document reflects this ongoing process — calling on all parties to submit updated or new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ahead of COP27 in November 2022.
With new commitments made by India, Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Australia and others, at least 90 percent of the world’s economy is now signed up to net-zero targets — that figure was 2
less than 30 percent one year ago.
Businesses are now far more engaged than ever before, taking initiative and not waiting for governments to act. This was demonstrated by the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), which has US$130 trillion of assets under its control. Clean finance can now play a critical role in driving, or stopping, activity irrespective of changes in government
policy — although some questions remain about how these assets expect to be mobilized in practice.
More generally, there has been a definite and perceptible shift toward ‘bottom up’ action by companies, investors, consumers, individuals and cities — with a vast array of initiatives underway to help reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, that will likely generate a momentum of their own, separate from the government-led COP gatherings.
Banks, insurers and capital markets are expected to drive action now to a far greater extent than ever before. The new requirements for all listed companies in the UK to produce net zero transition plans by 2023 can only increase transparency and scrutiny of the companies that have credible plans and those that don’t. This is likely to be replicated in other countries.
COP26 has established a new International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) to develop global reporting standards, building on and incorporating initiatives like the Task Force for Climate-related Disclosures (TCFD).
The Glasgow Breakthroughs establish innovation programmes for clean power, zero emission road transport, clean steel, hydrogen and sustainable agriculture. There is considerable optimism around the world that the solutions to climate change can be found, with a big role for renewables, electric vehicles, low carbon hydrogen, batteries, carbon capture and 3
storage, direct air capture, and other forms of long-duration energy storage.
Methane accounts for about 0.5C of the 1.1C-1.2C warming the world has seen to date, and the Global Methane Pledge signed by over 100 countries, will aim to cut methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030 — compared with 2020 levels.
Progress was made on reforestation, with the commitment signed by over 100 countries including Brazil, Russia, Canada, Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo and China to reverse and end deforestation by 2030. This builds on the
biodiversity commitments held at COP15 to a 30 by 30 target — a plan to conserve 30 percent of the world’s land and sea by 2030.
On coal, the G20, including China, had already agreed to stop funding new coal-fired power stations, abroad. Now, 65 countries have signed up to the Powering Past Coal initiative aimed at 4
taking coal — the most polluting fuel — out of the energy mix, altogether. In a dramatic last minute twist, the final text of the Glasgow Climate Pact was amended to refer to the “phase-down of unabated coal” rather than “phase-out” — following push back from some large coal using countries.
There has also been a much greater focus on green innovation, through the UN Climate Change Global Innovation Hub and on supporting emerging technologies through the announcement of the First Movers Coalition.
There was significant progress made on Article 6 — the rule book for carbon accounting.This will bring greater transparency to how carbon markets work, closing a number of loopholes and reducing the scope for double counting of carbon reductions.
The climate finance target of US$100 billion per year for developing nations — first introduced in Copenhagen back in 2009, and due to be met by 2020 — can now not expect to be met before 2023.
While there have been new long-term commitments to net zero made by a number of countries in the run up to COP26 — including energy-rich economies like Australia and Saudi Arabia — the shorter-term targets and plans for many countries for 2030 remain vague. We need to see a steep drop in emissions this decade, if we are to limit global warming to 1.5C (see graph below). The UN estimates that we’re far from halving world emissions by 2030 — as needed for the Paris goal of 1.5C emissions. Referring to net zero and the Paris Agreement goals, Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry, summed it up by saying that “We can do this. The question now is whether we do it in time.”
Limiting warming to 1.5C is increasingly difficult without large-scale negative emissions
COP26 has been termed the ‘Business and Finance COP’, because of the more prominent role the business and finance community has taken compared to previous conferences.
The scrutiny of plans on decarbonization is only going to grow from both investors and from consumers. This is especially true in the UK, which had already made climate risk disclosures mandatory for large companies from 2022, and for all companies by 2025. In addition, they’ve now added a new requirement for listed companies to produce net zero transition plans by 2023.
Globally, the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) is now tasked with coming up with global reporting standards with a focus on carbon emissions.
Net zero is the next industrial revolution. And like other revolutions, those businesses who seize the opportunity can expect to thrive — those that don’t, may not.
The reality? These changes are coming and businesses should be prepared. If you already have a credible, quantified plan for emissions reductions, then great; if you don’t, you should begin to consider one as soon as possible.
KPMG firms can support businesses and organizations with the transformation needed to fight climate change through KPMG IMPACT — the accelerator for KPMG’s global ESG strategy. For example, KPMG in the UK has developed the KPMG Climate IQ to assess the impacts of climate change under different scenarios. This tool supports the development of robust, credible plans and strategies for decarbonization and assistance with emissions reduction.
Global organizations are responding not just to regulatory developments, but also to increasingly intense scrutiny from institutional investors. Other stakeholders, such as employees and customers are paying attention to how businesses are preforming on the net-zero agenda.
Given that most carbon emissions come from businesses, this is a welcomed development. Government policy and regulation will likely continue to be critical — and the reality is that global corporations are now moving faster than governments in the race to net zero.
Coming out of COP26, there’s an absolute necessity for substantial progress to be made between now and 2030 — if the ultimate 2050 net-zero targets are to be achieved. This underscores the importance of developing net-zero and climate transition plans with both short-term targets and actions.
What does the short-term environment on the climate agenda look like for the business community?
There’s an increased focus on reporting and disclosure — particularly as a result of the ISSB announcement. Governments are expected to continue to pursue policy initiatives to help drive the agenda, not just for reporting, but across the wider carbon space.
It’s clear that institutional investors are taking this agenda incredibly seriously as they recognize it directly relates to the value of their investments. As a result, companies are likely to see much greater focus from the investment community. The making of commitments will no longer be sufficient — the future will be about developing meaningful and well thought out
plans, followed by swift action. And companies should expect to report their progress, yearly, between now and 2030.
The climate agenda is not just about risk. It’s critical the business community grasps the value in the opportunity associated with the global response to the climate crisis. Society is entering a phase where low carbon goods and services have increased value and this feature will likely continue to dominate the marketplace. Organizations who understand the value opportunity as well as the risk, are most likely to be successful.
All countries have been asked to look again at their 2030 targets and come back next year with more ambitious reduction plans – like a ‘one-way rachet’ ramping up levels of ambition.
Is 1.5C still achievable? Technically yes, but only just and as things stand, we are not on track.
Glasgow is not the end of the story. This is an ongoing process, and we have come a long way in six years since Paris, when the world was heading for 3C-4C of global warming. The world has made significant progress in bending the arc of that trajectory down “toward 2C” as Alok Sharma, COP President puts it.
Every degree, every tenth of one degree, really matters. The world is already seeing the devastating effects of climate change at ‘only’ 1.1C-1.2C of warming, today. At 1.5C, 70 percent of the world’s coral reefs die. At 2C, they all die and more than 1 billion people, globally, could be affected by fatal heat and humidity — according to the UK Met Office; whilst many island states 6
and low-lying areas will likely become uninhabitable.
The world witnessed some progress made at Glasgow in tackling climate change. But there is much more to do — especially in terms of delivery of the commitments and initiatives announced at COP26 and on near-term targets for 2030.
Soon, the world’s eyes will turn to COP27 in Egypt, which could no doubt be set against the backdrop of ever more extreme climatic events.
Global Co-head Climate Change and Decarbonization, KPMG IMPACT, Partner & Lead,
Renewables, KPMG In India
Global Co-head of Climate Change & Decarbonization,
KPMG IMPACT & Global Head of Renewables, KPMG International
Vice Chair and UK Head of Energy and Natural Resources
KPMG in the UK
当前，全球正处在应对气候变化的关键节点，第26届联合国气候变化大会（COP26）被视为 是自2015年《巴黎协定》以来最重要的气候问题对话。此次会议既取得了令人瞩目的成果，也 遇到了一些挫折，这二者均会对全球各地的企业造成影响。
《巴黎协定》设定了将与工业革命前水平相比的全球升温幅度控制在远低于2摄氏度的 目标，COP26在推动实现这一目标方面取得了进展。然而，就目前提交的各项计划 而言，全球已经完全偏离了将气温升幅控制在1.5摄氏度以内的目标。
国际能源署（IEA）预计，若迄今为止已公布的所有气候承诺均能够按时实现，则全球升温 可以限制在1.8摄氏度。然而，由于缺少明确的2030计划，实际升幅可能将达到2.4 摄氏度。1
要想达成既定气温变化目标，则必须履行上述承诺。应该肯定的是，自《巴黎协定》以 来，我们在一定程度上扭转了此前3-4摄氏度的气候变暖势头。这一持续过程始于近 30年以前，COP26应被视为其中一部分。如今，它还将依据计划不断推行下去以应 对气候变化。
越来越明显的是，机构投资界正开始通过投资政策施加实质影响，同时也正开始要求被 投资的企业提高对气候的关注度。而重要的是，此类投资者对非上市公司与上市公 司在这方面均等同视之。
在格拉斯哥COP26峰会前夕，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊（Boris Johnson）呼吁使此次会议成 为“人类发展的转折点”，将全球带回到实现2015年《巴黎协定》中设定的“把全球升温幅度 与工业革命前水平相比控制在远低于2摄氏度”目标的轨道上，并努力将其限制在1.5摄氏度。
“环保少女”格蕾塔·桑伯格（Greta Thunberg）则预计此次会议将只是表面文章，政客们不会履 行各自的承诺，也不会采取实际行动。
那么，谁的观点正确？毕马威认为其实际成果介乎二者之间，既在部分领域取得进展，同时也 存在不少令人失望之处。格拉斯哥峰会紧紧围绕《巴黎协定》设定的将全球升温控制在1.5摄 氏度的目标，但是按目前情况来看，全球形势发展完全偏离了这一目标。
COP26推动了气候议程的实施，也促使更多社会领域采取行动。如今，与格拉斯哥净零金融联 盟类似的通过“自下而上”实施的倡议数量正不断增加，并逐渐形成势头，后续很可能促成实质 变化。
格拉斯哥峰会应被视为1992年里约地球峰会发起的全球气候变化持续议程的一部分，这也反映 在其最终决定文件之中。该文件呼吁所有缔约国于2022年11月COP27会议召开之前提交更新 后或全新的“国家自主贡献”。
当前，企业参与度比以往呈现大幅提升，同时也更为积极主动，而非坐等政府行动。手握130 万亿美元资产的格拉斯哥净零金融联盟（GFANZ）很好地证明了这一点。如今，清洁金融能 够在不受政府政策变化影响的情况下促成或阻止相关活动方面发挥重要作用，即便人们对于此 类资产可能的实际用途仍然存有部分疑虑。
更为普遍的是，企业、投资者、消费者、个人和城市纷纷出现向“自下而上”行动模式转变的 明确趋势，并采取各种各样的措施帮助降低温室气体排放，这很可能形成一种与由政府牵头的 缔约国行动截然不同的势头。
银行、保险公司和资本市场预计将助力相关行动达到前所未有的新高度。所有在英国上市的公 司都必须于2030年前制定净零过渡计划的新要求，将提高各企业的透明度和监察力度，无论他 们是否具有可信的计划。此举很可能被其他国家借鉴。
《格拉斯哥突破议程》（Glasgow Breakthroughs）在清洁能源、零排放、道路交通、清洁 钢铁、氢能和可持续农业方面制定了创新计划。全球对能否找到应对气候变化的解决方案普遍 较为乐观。这其中，可再生能源、电动汽车、低碳氢能、电池、碳捕集与封存、直接空气捕集 和其他长时储能形式等，均将起到重要作用。3
迄今为止，全球1.1-1.2摄氏度气温升幅中有0.5摄氏度是由甲烷引起，而经100多个国家签署 的“全球甲烷承诺”（Global Methane Pledge）的目标，是到2030年将甲烷排放量在2020年 基础上减少30%。
人工造林方面已取得进展，包括中国、巴西、俄罗斯、加拿大、印度尼西亚、刚果民主共和国 在内的100多个国家已经签字承诺2030年以前终结并扭转森林滥伐行为。这是基于COP15峰会 达成的生物多样性承诺中的“30×30”目标的一大举措，该目标希望到2030年保护30%的陆地和 海洋。
在煤炭方面，包括中国在内的20国集团（G20）已经同意停止在海外资助新建燃煤电厂。目 前，65个国家已经加入“弃用煤炭发电”（Powering Past Coal）倡议，以共同将煤炭这种最 具污染性的燃料排除在能源组合之外。4由于受到部分煤炭消费大国的反对，《格拉斯哥气候公 约》在极具戏剧性的最后一刻将终稿措辞从“逐步淘汰有增无减的煤碳发电”修改为“逐步减 少”。
联合国气候变化“全球创新中心”（Global Innovation Hub）也使绿色创新吸引了更多关注的 目光，而“先行者联盟”（First Movers Coalition）的建立则使支持新兴科技成为另一焦 点。
虽然COP26前夕许多国家针对净零做出了新的长期承诺，包括澳大利亚和沙特阿拉伯等经济严 重依赖能源的国家，但是许多国家的2030年短期目标和计划仍然较为模糊。要想将全球升温 控制在1.5摄氏度（见下图），则必须在当前十年大量减少排放。联合国认为我们离到2030年 实现排放减半还相当遥远，而这是达成《巴黎协定》中将全球升温控制在1.5摄氏度的目标的 必经之路。谈到净零和《巴黎协定》目标时，美国总统气候特使John Kerry总结称：“我们能 够做到这一点，但目前问题在于是否能够及时做到。”
投资者和消费者将会对脱碳计划进行越来越严格的审视。这种情况在英国尤为明显，因为该国 已经强制要求大型企业从2022年起应披露气候风险，并将于2025年把范围扩大到所有企业。 此外，该国如今又增加了新的规定，要求上市企业到2023年前制定净零过渡计划。
利用毕马威全球ESG战略加速器KPMG IMPACT，毕马威成员所能够帮助各类企业和组织实施 必要转型，以应对气候变化。例如，毕马威英国已经打造出KPMG Climate IQ用于评估不同场 景下的气候变化影响。该工具能够为制定有力、可信的脱碳计划和策略以及降低排放量提供支 持。
目前, ESG报告和信息披露受到了更多关注，尤其是在ISSB发布相关公告之后。预计政府会继 续探索政策措施以帮助推动这一议程，其范围将不仅限于报告，也会涵盖更为广泛的碳排放空 间。
显然，机构投资者极为重视这一议程，因为他们认为该议程与其投资的价值存在直接关联。因 此在这方面，企业很可能面临来自投资界的更多关注。而承诺本身已不足以满足要求，未来必 须制定有意义且经过深思熟虑的计划，并迅速付诸实施。同时，企业还可能需要在当前到2030 年期间每年报告相关进展。
风险并非气候议程的全部。对于商业领域而言，把握全球应对气候危机所带来的机遇价值非常 重要。在当前社会阶段，低碳产品和服务的价值已经得到提升，且将可能继续成为市场主导趋 势。对此等价值机遇和风险均了然于胸的组织，最有可能获得成功。
格拉斯哥峰会并未对此事画上句号。这将是一个持续的过程，在《巴黎协定》签署后的过去6 年中，我们在扭转3-4摄氏度的气候变暖势头方面取得了长足的进展。正如COP26主席阿洛克· 夏尔马（Alok Sharma）所说的，全球在使这一温度变化曲线“朝着2摄氏度”方向发展方面 已经取得了重大成效。
每一度，甚至每十分之一度的变化，都意义重大。全球气温上升“仅仅”1.1-1.2摄氏度，就已 经令当今世界面临着气候变化的毁灭性打击。若上升1.5摄氏度，则全球70%的珊瑚礁将出现 死亡。而据英国气象局表示，若上升2摄氏度，全球珊瑚礁都将灭绝，且将有10亿人面临致命 的高温潮湿天气，许多岛国和低洼地区将可能不再适宜人类居住。6
Mr David Slater/施大为
Mr Matt Jackson
Mrs Stella Li/ 李萌
主导在英中资企业气候变化及ESG合规相关解决方案工作，并在跨境投资并购、数字化转型、运营及合规方面拥有 十五年以上管理咨询经验。重点关注行业包括先进制造、运输、汽车/未来交通、能源、化工、物流、TMT、资产管 理和金融科技。
KPMG IMPACT气候变化和脱碳全球联合主管合伙人毕马威印度可再生能源主管合伙人。 E: email@example.com
KPMG IMPACT气候变化和脱碳全球联合主管合伙人毕马威国际可再生能源全球主管合伙人。 E: firstname.lastname@example.org